So what next Midoki?

Discussion in 'Off topic' started by Red Privateer, Jun 9, 2016.

  1. flyingdoucheman

    flyingdoucheman Magical Banner Wizard

    I would like to just visit a side bar issue I wax poetic about from time to time. I am, as we All are waiting for an update so Our 10 million gold we've been staring at , can be used for something. For the ❤️Love of God please make enough noise that game Gods can hear "WE NEED AN UNFAIR MERCHANT !!" Some ugly no good scum bag that floats in with the trade ships and gives astronomical trades on gold to grog. Hell, I would gladly trade 3 million gold for 750,000 in grog. Vice versa of course in the rare times you need the opposite. Please Midoki help us plunder and pirate. :(
     
  2. Skye

    Skye Commodore

    100% of players that have been playing since before Christmas should have had every LP on at least one trade ship. Christmas had two of the rare LP fixed, as did New Years. If you started playing after that, or were not able to log on those weeks, then yes, you may not have gotten all of them yet. If you passed up the opportunity to recruit one though, that's on you, as there has been that opportunity.

    40 chests is not enough to guarantee a specific drop. 40 chests and 2100 chests is a VERY LARGE difference in terms of sample size, and in 40 you are much more likely to diverge from the mean. On average, every 100 chests will get you around 20 of each material, but you need to buy a lot of chests for it to start averaging out. I explained exactly where I got that figure. You will at some point get streaks of dozens of chests with nothing useful, or a bunch of chests with a ton of useful stuff in them. And you need a VERY LARGE sample size to make these streaks of good/bad luck regress to the mean.

    If you do a forum search, I posted a topic a while back that analyzed the drops in a streak of 100 merchant chests opened back to back with an analysis of drop rates (and this was during PH9, drops may be higher at PH10, as drops at PH4 are definitely worse than drops at PH10). Since then, on PPBay Slack, I posted a more in depth analysis on them (I rewrote my script that analyzed the drops), and then ran it again on a streak of 100 admirals chests to compare drop rates per gem spent. Admirals chests are significantly worse (I've also done an analysis on 100 of each other chest, but I didn't bother writing those down, as they were all worse than merchant as well), Merchant Chests are by far the best of all the chest types, but you have to expect to buy a very large amount. At least 100, probably several hundred, before things start averaging out. I do my chests in batches of 400 (which gets a set of 4 figures along with them) and they definitely average out over that many.

    While things are random, and there is a miniscule chance that in 2100 chests you won't get any of what you want, in reality, statistics shows that this is incredibly unlikely. If somehow you go 100 chests without anything you need, you are WAY away from the mean by several standard deviations, and the law of large numbers suggests that everything will regress to this mean over time. 2100 chests is more than enough that you should be well within one deviation of the mean. I suggest studying an introductory statistics college text to work out specific p-values and stuff.

    Draw from a deck of cards at random 142 times (to compare with the 40 chests*3.55 slots), you may never draw the queen of hearts (1/52 chance, which is fairly similar to the chance of getting a specific material, which is 1/72 - its not exactly the same, I used the real value in my math, but its close enough to make a comparable analogy), even though on average most people will draw it twice or three times. But if you draw from a deck of cards 7455 times(2100*3.55 slots), you will almost certainly draw it with around the same frequency of every other card.

    As for having to throw things out, if you're buying that many chests, it doesn't matter. You don't throw out commons, since the point of buying that many is to get enough commons, but you have such a surplus of rares and epics that if you threw out EVERY SINGLE RARE/EPIC until you opened the first 1500 chests (which you don't have to do, this is just a hyperbole to show the silly amount you will be getting), you would still get enough in the last 600 to max every LP. If you save your slots for commons, and use those up as you get them, you will max every LP despite throwing out countless surplus rares/epics.

    I would go thru the chests focusing on one half of the LP at a time. One LP per common material, throw out all the rares/epics that go for the other LP that shares that common, and when one of those LP is maxed, then start working on the other one that shares a common material with it. You will finish the first 6 at around chest 1050, at which point you will have way more than enough chests leftover to give you enough rares/epics to max the last 6, despite throwing out literally every one you found before then.

    In practice, this is what I did. I threw out everything that wasn't for Sadie, Ching, Caesar, Blackbeard, Black Bart, or Tinto. Over the course of 900 merchant chests, which is just under halfway to the 2100 I quoted to do all 12, I have Sadie, Ching, Caesar, and Blackbeard maxed. Tinto is 19 and just needs a handful of masks to finish up, and Black Bart is 22 and just needs a handful of shark teeth to finish up. That's 6/12. If I opened another 150 chests I would finish Tinto and Bart easily. In the process, I also managed to get Cornelius and Romeo to 16, Mack to 14, Greenbeard to 11, Annabelle to 10, and Jeanne to 8. I will almost certainly max all 12 several hundred chests before the 2100 mark (although I do farm commons, which is what makes up that difference).

    Your mileage may vary slightly, as there is a slight bit of randomness to it, but over that massive amount, you'll be pretty damn close. I'm certainly ahead of the curve, but even if you're slightly behind the curve, you'll be close enough.
     
  3. Alnemer

    Alnemer Crew

    This is not correct
    this not true.... Me and my son did not miss any trade ship ,i was waiting for blackbart and my son waiting for sadi and both of us never get it until the last Christmas because the amazing random system

    For along time in this form u said every one have the same chance to get the legendary and forget to say it correctly "the same chance after what ..... 4 to 5 months" is this called the same chance

    This game focus on getting mony as they can and forget they are losing players...
     
    Deadwood likes this.
  4. Skye

    Skye Commodore

    Same chance means everyone is subjected to the same random probability week to week. Not that everyone will have him at the same time. Every week he's an option, every player has a 20% chance to get him.

    Christmas is the time I was talking about when they were guaranteed, which means every player that hadn't gotten a rare LP yet was guaranteed to get all 4. 100% chance.

    It may take some people several months, others may get it the first chance, but they all had an equal probability to draw it. Just as if you're playing poker, you have the exact same chance to draw a royal flush as any other player. Some may get it their first time, it may take you years of playing poker before you get one, but you were just as likely to get it each time as every other person.

    LP appearances don't have anything to do with getting money. You cannot pay money to get them early. And rather than losing players, I'm pretty sure they actually retain players, as newer players that don't have them are enticed to log in every week to check for a new one, and habituating users to checking is actually a strategy to keep players. Again, I suggest researching game design theories involving skinner-box systems.

    This game is very tame when it comes to asking for money from players. I can name many games where you have to spend several thousands to be competitive. I play one where at least 10 players have spent enough to each buy a small house, trying to outspend each other every week, and if you want any chance at fighting them you HAVE to spend a similar amount or you instantly lose. In this game, you can max everything for several hundred dollars, and you don't need things to be maxed to be competitive - leveling up LP doesn't have an extremely major effect on gameplay, and a free player can 3* the base of a spending player almost as easily as a spending player can 3* the same base. It isn't trying to grab your money, it does have to generate revenue to keep the developers employed and the servers running, but they could be gouging us for much more than they do.

    Is this the only freemium game you've ever played? Go find one with a VIP system and try to make rank 1 :)
     
  5. Tiger Claw

    Tiger Claw Captain

    With any luck Midoki is working on an entirely new game by now. That should keep crime at its current level and food on the table for the small and resourceful Midoki staff.

    @Skye
    I would also be so humble to suggest that most of us don't require a history lesson concerning the color pink. Simply put, we don't like it painted all over our walls this far into the game. A lot of time and effort goes into reaching high level walls and most will agree how tedious and unpleasant a process it is.

    Upgrades should feel rewarding, but in this case it's just the opposite.

    TiGeR
     
    Deadwood, 850arrr and Ebow like this.
  6. Skye

    Skye Commodore

    Some of us like the color pink :(

    And my point is that it was historically considered a boy color, and the game is somewhat historically based. And either way, that gender stereotypes shouldn't effect anyone's enjoyment of something, as avoiding something because it looks "feminine" is an insecurity either stemming from prejudice against girls, or against the femininity in flamboyant men stereotypically associated with homosexuality. Misogyny and homophobia are not cool.

    If you just don't like it as a color, that's fine, I don't like some colors myself either, like puce or olive drab, but many of the people I've seen complain were because it "wasn't manly".

    I also wanted to make a point that, like the color or not, it does make sense from a UI perspective, given that color theory suggests it would be the best color to accent and highlight key things to make them pop out against the other colors (green and blue) present on the island, as its essentially a bright, very saturated red-based hue. Color contrast is great.

    I'm not positive its a good choice if you consider deuteronopia, which is a fantastic argument against it, (and I would totally be for an accessibility option to make a high-contrast color swap on the game so that things were more clear for people of various color-blindedness, which would at the same time allow people who dislike the color to view it thru a colorblind correction, shifting it to a different color they may like better). But accessibility aside, a graphic designer would certainly understand why it would make sense as a UI design choice.
     
  7. peg-brain bob

    peg-brain bob Captain

    I love the pink defences for exactly this contrast reason ;) (I hated the dingy blue/grey GP 2s - they were so hard to find!) :(

    +1 for accessibility (colour-swap) options - anything which makes this fantastic game more inclusive can only be a good thing! :)
     
  8. Ebow

    Ebow Crew

    Facepalm
     
    Tiger Claw likes this.
  9. Red Privateer

    Red Privateer First Mate

    I like Pink. She is a great Singer....
     
    Skillzone10 and Spongee like this.
  10. I
    I disagree with legends needing $4000 to max out, I have blackbeard24, Ching25, Bart22 and Sadie22, I have spent about £50 total in nearly 2 years of playing the game and have just finished all level 15 walls and buildings. Only my Ghastly gunner21, brute (needs 4 training levels) and Buc needs 8 training levels until all pirates apart from legs are max.
     

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